The Trump administration appears to be shifting its tone on China amid escalating trade tensions. President Trump recently stated a deal is in progress, with tariff reductions expected. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed this sentiment, noting “an opportunity for a big deal.”
However, China remains resolute. Despite these softened statements, Beijing insists it will not be pressured into any agreement. Below are the core reasons why China may be better positioned than the U.S. to endure the trade standoff.
China’s political structure gives it a strategic edge. President Xi Jinping does not face the same electoral pressures as President Trump, enabling China to absorb short-term economic shocks without immediate political consequences.
China’s economy expanded by 5.4% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year. In contrast, the U.S. posted 2.4% growth in the last quarter of 2024. This economic resilience provides China with more flexibility to withstand prolonged tariffs.
President Xi is not up for re-election in 2026. Trump, however, must contend with mid-term elections that could weaken his administration’s mandate. Additionally, a potential shift in U.S. leadership in 2028 introduces further uncertainty in American policy direction, allowing Xi to play a longer strategic game.
The trade war has positioned China as a more stable and predictable trading partner, especially in the Global South. Xi has emphasized multilateralism and denounced economic coercion. His recent visits to Malaysia, Cambodia, and Vietnam underscore efforts to build alliances and trade relationships in regions vulnerable to U.S.-China economic fallout.
China has diversified its trade partnerships. For example, it has significantly reduced its dependence on American soybeans, once a major import, by boosting local production and increasing imports from Brazil.
From March 2024 to February 2025, Brazil exported $35.6 billion worth of soybeans to China, compared to just $12.1 billion from the U.S. This trend extends beyond agriculture, reflecting a deliberate policy to mitigate exposure to U.S. supply disruptions.
China maintains global supremacy in critical mineral production and processing—resources essential for electronics, electric vehicles, and defense technology.
Beijing produces over 50% and processes around 90% of the world’s rare earth minerals. This dominant position enables China to control pricing and supply. Earlier this month, China suspended exports of several critical minerals to the U.S., tightening pressure on American manufacturers and defense contractors.
China’s political stability, diversified trade relationships, and control over critical resources provide it with structural advantages in the trade dispute. While Washington seeks to de-escalate, Beijing holds leverage and appears in no rush to concede.
As trade negotiations continue, these dynamics suggest that the U.S. —President Trump may face increasing internal pressure to compromise tariff plans before China does.
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