A peace deal ending a conflict that killed tens of thousands in South Sudan is in danger of collapsing. Thereby, raising fears that the world’s youngest nation could lapse back into war.
South Sudan split from Sudan in 2011 after decades of pro-independence unrest. And has since had struggles to maintain peace in the territory. Which has been divided along ethnic lines, plunging into civil war twice. Each in 2013 and in 2016 until a fragile ceasefire agreement was reached in 2018.
The Current Crisis in South Sudan
South Sudan is governed by a coalition government led by President Salva Kiir and five vice presidents. Including his rival Riek Machar, leader of the SPLM/A-IO party.
On March 26, 2025, security forces reportedly entered Machar’s residence in Juba, placing him and his wife, Interior Minister Angelina Teny, under house arrest. This action has been linked to accusations against Machar of supporting the White Army militia. Though his party denies such links. In the weeks leading up to Machar’s detention, several officials aligned with him were arrested. Including Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol and Deputy Army Chief General Gabriel Duop Lam. These arrests followed clashes in Upper Nile State involving the White Army militia.
Machar’s arrest followed the arrival of Ugandan troops at Kiir’s invitation to assist South Sudan’s military in fighting a local militia. The SPLM/A-IO condemned the military intervention. And Machar wrote to the UN, calling Uganda’s involvement a violation of the peace deal.
The SPLM/A-IO, led by Machar, has declared the peace agreement effectively collapsed due to these events. Deputy Chairperson Oyet Nathaniel Pierino stated that the detention of Machar and officials undermines the prospects for peace and stability.
South Sudan has never held a national election. Its current government is a product of the 2018 power-sharing agreement between Kiir and Machar. Which ended a five-year civil war that claimed an estimated 400,000 lives.
The country remains polarized between the Dinka tribe, to which Kiir belongs, and Machar’s Nuer ethnic group. Recent clashes in the town of Nasir between government forces and a Nuer militia known as the White Army have further destabilized the fragile peace, resulting in multiple deaths. A UN helicopter was attacked by the White Army, killing General David Majur Dak of the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces.
Authorities confirmed Machar’s arrest, accusing him of inciting rebellion to prevent upcoming elections. Information Minister Michael Makuei claimed intelligence reports indicated Machar was working against peace and would be prosecuted accordingly. The SPLM/A-IO has not commented on these allegations.
International Reactions
UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric warned that Machar’s arrest pushed the nation closer to civil war. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that the peace agreement was in “shambles” and called for de-escalation. Also comparing the situation to previous conflicts in the country. He warned that the situation is “darkly reminiscent” of past civil wars. Furthermore, urging South Sudanese leaders to prioritize the well-being of their people.
Western nations, EU including the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Norway has call out Salva Kiir. They urged Kiir to release Machar and called for a ceasefire. The US has also called on the president to release Machar. He also emphasizes that his detention and the escalating violence risk reigniting ethnic tensions reminiscent of the 2013-2018 civil war. The African Union announced plans to deploy its Panel of the Wise to Juba to help de-escalate tensions. And also, restore dialogue among the concerned parties. Kenya’s envoy, Raila Odinga, held talks with Kiir and expressed optimism about finding a resolution.
A Country on the Edge
The World Bank has warned that violence, mismanagement, and political instability have worsened South Sudan’s humanitarian crisis. More than two-thirds of the population lives in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2.15 per day.
Despite its struggles, South Sudan hosts over half a million refugees from conflicts in neighboring countries. Which includes Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic.
The UN has described South Sudan as “a country on the edge” warning against ignoring the crisis. The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has warned that the country’s leaders are risking a return to widespread conflict, citing escalating violence and political tensions. The commission condemned recent attacks, including one on a UN aircraft in Nasir that resulted in fatalities, and called for respect for human rights and the completion of key transitional processes.
Guterres stated, “We cannot let the situation fall over the abyss.”
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PC: CNN
