The excessive proportion of high stage A-level outcomes set to be given to college students subsequent week has raised fears of grade inflation, a number one professor has stated.
Professor Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Training and Employment Analysis (CEER) on the College of Buckingham, has raised considerations that grade inflation “could also be creeping again in once more”.
The proportion of A-level entries scoring high grades this summer season is prone to be increased than pre-Covid years, it has been recommended.
An schooling skilled has predicted {that a} increased share of UK A-level entries awarded an A or A* grade – in comparison with earlier than the Covid-19 pandemic – stands out as the “new regular”.
Final yr, greater than 1 / 4 (27.8 per cent) of UK A-level entries have been awarded an A or A* grade, up from 27.2 per cent in 2023.
In a report, printed forward of A-level outcomes day, Prof Smithers stated he believes this yr’s outcomes “are prone to be near what they have been in 2024”.
It was the best proportion of entries scoring high grades outdoors the pandemic-affected years of 2020-22.
In 2019 – the final yr that summer season exams have been taken earlier than the pandemic – 25.4 per cent of entries have been awarded A or A* grades.
The Covid-19 pandemic led to a rise in high A-level and GCSE grades in 2020 and 2021, with outcomes primarily based on instructor assessments as an alternative of exams.
Forward of A-level outcomes day on Thursday subsequent week, Prof Smithers stated the grade sample in 2024 “may very well be the beginning of a brand new regular”.
He added that the proportion of UK A-level entries awarded A or A* grades – of between 27 per cent and 28 per cent – may very well be the “new norm” for outcomes.
Figures overlaying A-level entries from college students in England, Wales and Northern Eire can be printed by the Joint Council for {Qualifications} on Thursday.
Ofqual introduced A-level grading requirements again according to pre-Covid ranges in England in 2023, and examination regulators in Wales and Northern Eire aimed to return to pre-pandemic grading final summer season.
Prof Smithers stated A-level grades ought to have been “again to regular” final yr, however he added that they rose to a stage increased than pre-Covid years.
He added: “There must be the suspicion that the inflation which bedevilled A-level grades within the days earlier than the regulator, Ofqual, could also be creeping again in once more.”
In his report, Prof Smithers additionally recommended that “women will do higher than boys” as soon as once more on the high A-level grades.
Final yr, the proportion of ladies’ A-level entries awarded A or increased was 28.0 per cent, which was 0.4 share factors increased than the equal determine for boys’ entries (27.6 per cent).
However the proportion of boys’ entries awarded A* was 9.5 per cent – which was 0.4 share factors increased than women (9.1 per cent).
Prof Smithers has recommended that the success for boys at A* will “proceed to be overshadowed in 2025 by the longstanding superior outcomes of ladies total”.
He stated: “Sadly, the under-performance of boys isn’t any extra doubtless than in earlier years to obtain the eye it deserves.
“They and the nation would profit significantly if methods may very well be discovered of guaranteeing that the potential of many boys isn’t wasted.”
Reflecting on provisional examination entries knowledge for England, Prof Smithers stated a decline within the social sciences this summer season “may very well be an early signal that they’ve been rumbled” in promising greater than they ship.
A-level entries for psychology and sociology are down, however entries for arithmetic, physics and chemistry are up, in response to provisional figures from Ofqual in June.
Prof Smithers stated: “The swing in the direction of maths and the bodily sciences may very well be a response to the previous authorities’s promotion of them.”
He added: “I ponder if there’s rising recognition that these social sciences promise greater than they ship, whereas the quantitative could also be arduous however they’re significant.”
