Authorities figures obtained by The PIE present 62% of candidates had been refused a examine allow from January to July this 12 months, with record-high volumes “elevating pressing questions on transparency and utility readiness,” stated ApplyBoard.
Regardless of a decade of comparatively steady approval rankings hovering round 60%, charges have plummeted to 38% up to now this 12 months, down from 48% in 2024 following the implementation of Canada’s examine allow caps.
“It’s clear that Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) is making use of far larger scrutiny to new purposes,” Jonathan Sherman, vice chairman of gross sales & partnership at BorderPass advised The PIE, pointing to a “elementary shift” in authorities processing.
Indian college students – who comprise 40% of Canada’s worldwide pupil inhabitants – have been hardest hit by hovering refusals, with 4 out of 5 Indian college students receiving rejections in Q2 2025, in line with BorderPass.
Stakeholders have pointed to a glimmer of hope in general approval rankings rising modestly this spring, although and not using a “dramatic shift,” Canada will solely attain one fifth of the federal government’s worldwide pupil goal for the 12 months, Sherman warned.
With establishments bracing for extreme declines, ApplyBoard evaluation has discovered the most typical cause for cause for rejection in 2024 was the notion by IRCC officers that college students wouldn’t depart Canada after their research, cited in over 75% of circumstances.
“Whereas reviewers at IRCC perceive that some future college students hope to realize work expertise in Canada after commencement… the intensive use of this cause final 12 months means that many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major function, as a substitute of examine,” said the report.
Monetary considerations drove three of the highest 5 refusal causes, after Canada greater than doubled its proof-of-funds necessities from $10,000 in 2023 to $20,635 in 2024.
Particularly, in 53% of circumstances, IRCC officers stated they had been unconvinced that candidates would go away Canada based mostly on monetary belongings, alongside doubts about inadequate sources for tuition and residing bills.
“Whereas new coverage caps performed a task, our full-year knowledge factors to recurring applicant challenges, significantly round monetary readiness and immigration intent which are preventable with the precise steerage and documentation,” stated ApplyBoard.
The report highlighted the persevering with decline of unspecified causes for refusal, following IRCC including officer determination notes to visa refusal letters final month, which was welcomed as a much-needed step in bettering transparency.
Different causes for refusal embrace the aim of go to being inconsistent with a short lived keep and having no important household ties exterior Canada.
The info comes amid a serious immigration crackdown in Canada, with short-term resident targets included within the newest Immigration Ranges Plan for the primary time, which goals to scale back short-term resident volumes to five% of the inhabitants by the tip of 2027 – a 12 months later than the earlier authorities’s goal.
Many are perceived as having everlasting residency as their major function, as a substitute of examine
ApplyBoard
Approval charges are additionally beneath common for different short-term resident classes, however none so drastically as examine permits, with just below half of all customer visas authorized up to now this 12 months, in comparison with a ten-year common of 64%.
After greater than 18 months of federal coverage turbulence, altering eligibility guidelines have seemingly contributed to the rise in examine allow rejection charges.
Strain to scale back IRCC backlogs and attain formidable authorities targets may be enjoying a task, in line with immigration legal professionals talking to the Toronto Star.
As of July 31, over 40% of Canada’s immigration stock was in backlog, together with 56% of customer visas, 46% of labor visas and 23% of examine visas, in line with official knowledge.
Following a swathe of latest IRCC officer hires, Sherman stated he anticipated to see enhancements in consistency, although “processing backlogs could worsen earlier than they get higher,” he warned.
Amid the challenges, educators and advisers are doubling down on what candidates and establishments can do to make sure the perfect probability of success, with ApplyBoard warning that any incomplete or ineligible documentation may be grounds for refusal.
